@Article{FerreiraMaTaChMoGoSa:2021:AsCrRi,
               author = "Ferreira, Nicole Costa Resende and Martins, Minella Alves and 
                         Tavares, Priscila da Silva and Chou, Sin Chan and Monteiro, C. and 
                         Gomes, L. and Santana, A.",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Sao Tome Airport} and {Sao Tome Airport} 
                         and {Sao Tome Airport}",
                title = "Assessment of crop risk due to climate change in Sao Tome and 
                         Principe",
              journal = "Regional Environmental Change",
                 year = "2021",
               volume = "21",
               number = "1",
                pages = "e22",
                month = "Mar.",
             abstract = "Sao Tome and Principe is a small insular country in the west coast 
                         of Central Africa. The small dimensions of the islands and the 
                         limited natural resources put these islands under highly 
                         vulnerable to climate change. To assess the possible future 
                         impacts and risks on their agricultural activities, the 
                         high-resolution 4-km downscaled climate change projections using 
                         Eta regional climate model are used. A crop risk index (CRI) is 
                         proposed to assess the risk of climate change on cocoa (Theobroma 
                         cacao L.), pepper (Piper nigrum L. and Piper guinesse L.), taro 
                         (Colocasia esculenta (L.) Schott), and maize (Zea mays L.). The 
                         index takes into account the vulnerability to climate conditions 
                         and the crop yield in the future, and it is classified into 
                         very-high, high, moderate, low, and very-low. The climate change 
                         projections indicate increase in the risk of taro crop, partly due 
                         to thermal stress and partly due to the susceptibility to the leaf 
                         blight crop disease in taro. The risk of production of the pepper 
                         crop is very-high, mainly due to water stress. In mountain 
                         regions, the greater risk is due to the thermal stress caused by 
                         low temperatures. The cocoa crop is at risk due to water stress, 
                         mainly in the northwestern part of the Sao Tome Island, where 
                         major local production occurs. The projection indicates increase 
                         of the area with very-high risk to maize crops due to the increase 
                         of thermal stress and susceptibility to rust. In addition, in 
                         parts of the coastal regions, the risk changed from very-low to 
                         high risk, due to the low productivity potential. In general, the 
                         risks of the four major crops of Sao Tome and Principe increase in 
                         the future climate condition.",
                  doi = "10.1007/s10113-021-01746-6",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-021-01746-6",
                 issn = "1436-3798 and 1436-378X",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "ferreira_assessment.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "09 maio 2024"
}